Sun, Jan 12, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 2, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 012 | 16 | 115 | 233 |
| DET | 411 | 28 | 04 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22DETMarco KasperAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:33DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Albert Johansson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 6:16DETAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 7:53DETPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 4:17DETErik GustafssonPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 15:21DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.31 xG0–6
- P2 18:00SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 6:54SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:08SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:27DETJ.T. Compher: Interference2 min
- P2 2:47SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26SEAKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:09DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:54SEAKaapo Kakko: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:15SEAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:02SEAJared McCann: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers11:41
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky10:36
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright9:33
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye5:26
xG 0.17–0.36 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dunn5:09
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Mahura – Evans15:30
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour11:03
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Motte – Rasmussen – Veleno9:31
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat9:14
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper11:47
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren9:38
xG 0.14–0.50 (21%)attempts 2–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson14:33
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Holl – Gustafsson14:22
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider15:50
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).