Sun, Jan 12, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 07 | 111 | 226 |
| OTT | 05 | 215 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 3:14OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:53OTTTim StützleAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 0:21OTTMatthew HighmoreGWGAssists: Nick Cousins, Shane Pinto · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 19:07DALEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Colin Blackwell, Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:16DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:51OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:34DALMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:40OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:23OTTTyler Kleven: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:10DALIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:01OTTArtem Zub: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hintz – Robertson8:54
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Duchene – Johnston11:10
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Bäck – Blümel7:20
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Steel – Bourque – Stankoven8:36
xG 0.09–0.79 (11%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley6:56
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley2:00
xG 0.07–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Lyubushkin2:05
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:33
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle2:51
xG 0.21–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Greig – Stützle4:59
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Cousins – Pinto – Greig5:41
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:13
xG 1.22–0.15 (89%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:39
xG 1.05–0.70 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Matinpalo2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).