Sun, Jan 12, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 03 | 19 | 11 | 320 |
| CAR | 010 | 011 | 215 | 01 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35ANAJansen HarkinsAssists: Nikita Nesterenko, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 1:18ANACutter GauthierAssists: Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 7:48CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 19:04CARSeth JarvisAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 1:52ANACutter GauthierGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:35CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:49ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:51ANAJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Colangelo – Carlsson11:40
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Leason – McTavish – Gauthier9:12
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Nesterenko8:11
xG 0.04–0.62 (6%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
- Strome – Fabbri – Vatrano12:43
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe16:29
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Zellweger13:18
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Trouba2:12
xG 0.01–0.25 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Svechnikov9:21
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Blake2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:28
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Jarvis13:35
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield16:50
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:18
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 26–8goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:43
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).