Tue, Jan 14, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Seattle Kraken 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 12 | 08 | 38 | 418 |
| PIT | 116 | 112 | 05 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12SEAChandler StephensonSHAssists: Jared McCann, Joey Daccord · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:19PITPhilip TomasinoAssists: Drew O'Connor, Kris Letang · Poke, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 4:42PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 8:04SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 8:54SEAEeli TolvanenGWGAssists: Shane Wright, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:57SEAKaapo KakkoENAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:11SEAAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:53PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:25PITNoel Acciari: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:25SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:57SEAKaapo Kakko: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Tolvanen – Wright7:18
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hayden – Stephens – Tanev7:18
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky10:15
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers14:46
xG 0.24–1.35 (15%)attempts 13–26goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak2:51
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Larsson – Evans2:16
xG 0.00–0.09 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Montour – Dunn2:03
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell14:56
xG 1.24–0.39 (76%)attempts 29–14goals 0–1
- Hayes – Tomasino – O'Connor8:26
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Beauvillier4:36
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Acciari – Lizotte7:01
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson19:22
xG 1.49–0.51 (75%)attempts 26–20goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk14:03
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Joseph – Pickering10:52
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).