Tue, Jan 14, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 17 | 115 | 227 |
| NYI | 07 | 09 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:42OTTAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Tyler Kleven, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 18:36OTTArtem ZubENAssists: Josh Norris, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.66 xG2–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:02NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:02OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:48OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:06NYINoah Dobson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHighmore – MacEwen – Ostapchuk4:19
xG 0.70–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle6:11
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Pinto – Greig12:16
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk13:18
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Zub5:33
xG 0.44–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Matinpalo6:36
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sanderson5:43
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Duclair – Engvall8:43
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Tsyplakov12:06
xG 0.32–0.51 (38%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Barzal14:18
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
- Martin – MacLean – Gatcomb5:29
xG 0.01–0.70 (1%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Cholowski2:45
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pulock – Cholowski3:20
xG 0.02–0.02 (44%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:58
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).