Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 112 | 04 | 03 | 229 |
| COL | 15 | 08 | 110 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53COLParker KellyAssists: Ross Colton, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:55NYRSam CarrickSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 9:59NYRAdam EdstromAssists: Sam Carrick · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:47COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- OT 4:23COLDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Logan O'Connor · Slap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:02NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:50COLKeaton Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:56NYRSam Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:45COLRoss Colton: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03NYRReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:45COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:08
xG 0.70–0.25 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Cuylle8:37
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe5:49
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev7:15
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:08
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider10:56
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Borgen – Miller16:21
xG 0.63–0.85 (42%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParssinen – Polin – Innala2:43
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – O'Connor – Kiviranta3:25
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Colton – Mittelstadt – Parssinen2:23
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen3:06
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Middleton4:50
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Malinski4:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Manson4:27
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).