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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver

New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.

COL winsNYR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:36Shot by Edstrom, saved by Blackwood
  3. P1 3:59Shot by Cuylle, saved by Blackwood
  4. P1 4:11Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Shesterkin
  5. P1 4:36Shot by Chytil, saved by Blackwood
  6. P1 4:47Shot by O'Connor, saved by Shesterkin
  7. P1 4:53Goal by Kelly (Colton, Makar)+10 pts WP

    On ice: COL Toews, Colton, Makar, Kelly, O'Connor · NYR Kreider, Vaakanainen, Chytil, Kaliyev, Schneider

  8. P1 6:06Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Shesterkin
  9. P1 6:32Shot by Trocheck, saved by Blackwood
  10. P1 6:49Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Shesterkin
  11. P1 11:02Kreider: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Drouin, Toews, Makar · NYR Kreider, Fox, Lindgren, Chytil, Kaliyev

  12. P1 11:55Goal by Carrick, unassisted5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Drouin, Rantanen, Makar · NYR Carrick, Fox, Miller, Cuylle

  13. P1 14:50Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: COL Toews, Middleton, Kelly, O'Connor, Kiviranta · NYR Trocheck, Panarin, Borgen, Fox, Lafrenière

  14. P1 15:05Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Blackwood4v5
  15. P1 16:47Shot by Smith, saved by Blackwood4v5
  16. P1 18:28Shot by Smith, saved by Blackwood
  17. P1 18:29Shot by Smith, saved by Blackwood
  18. P1 19:06Shot by Cuylle, saved by Blackwood
  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 2:00Shot by Manson, saved by Shesterkin
  22. P2 2:27Shot by Makar, saved by Shesterkin
  23. P2 2:55Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Blackwood
  24. P2 4:14Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Blackwood
  25. P2 5:29Shot by Toews, saved by Shesterkin
  26. P2 5:54Shot by Panarin, saved by Blackwood
  27. P2 6:44Shot by Middleton, saved by Shesterkin
  28. P2 7:36Shot by Polin, saved by Shesterkin
  29. P2 8:43Shot by Middleton, saved by Shesterkin
  30. P2 9:59Goal by Edstrom (Carrick)+24 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Rantanen, Colton, Mittelstadt, Malinski · NYR Carrick, Fox, Lindgren, Edstrom, Rempe

  31. P2 11:53Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Shesterkin
  32. P2 12:49Shot by Rantanen, saved by Shesterkin
  33. P2 12:56Carrick: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: COL de Haan, Rantanen, O'Connor, Kiviranta, Malinski · NYR Carrick, Borgen, Miller, Edstrom, Rempe

  34. P2 13:05Shot by Schneider, saved by Blackwood5v4
  35. P2 15:18Shot by Trocheck, saved by Blackwood
  36. P2 15:45Colton: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: COL de Haan, Manson, Mittelstadt, O'Connor, Kiviranta · NYR Trocheck, Zibanejad, Panarin, Borgen, Fox, Lafrenière

  37. P2 15:48Shot by Fox, saved by Blackwood4v5
  38. P2 15:52Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Blackwood4v5
  39. P2 16:41Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Blackwood4v5
  40. P2 16:48Shot by Trocheck, saved by Blackwood4v5
  41. P2 17:03Shot by Fox, saved by Blackwood4v5
  42. P2 17:08Shot by Panarin, saved by Blackwood4v5
  43. P2 0:00Period end
  44. P3 0:00Period start
  45. P3 1:30Shot by Manson, saved by Shesterkin
  46. P3 2:16Shot by Rempe, saved by Blackwood
  47. P3 2:38Shot by Toews, saved by Shesterkin
  48. P3 3:46Shot by Kaliyev, saved by Blackwood
  49. P3 6:06Shot by Rantanen, saved by Shesterkin
  50. P3 8:47Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Blackwood
  51. P3 10:06Shot by Parssinen, saved by Shesterkin
  52. P3 10:46Shot by Rantanen, saved by Shesterkin
  53. P3 13:03Smith: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Drouin, Toews, Rantanen, Makar · NYR Smith, Zibanejad, Borgen, Miller, Cuylle

  54. P3 13:57Shot by Carrick, saved by Blackwood5v4
  55. P3 14:51Shot by Colton, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  56. P3 18:30Shot by Drouin, saved by Shesterkin6v5
  57. P3 18:45Shot by Rantanen, saved by Shesterkin6v5
  58. P3 18:47Goal by Lehkonen (Rantanen, MacKinnon)6v5+48 pts WP

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Drouin, Toews, Rantanen, Makar · NYR Smith, Zibanejad, Fox, Lindgren, Cuylle

  59. P3 19:26Shot by O'Connor, saved by Shesterkin
  60. P3 0:00Period end
  61. OT 0:00Period start
  62. OT 0:45Rantanen: Interference (2 min)3v3

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, Toews, Rantanen · NYR Trocheck, Panarin, Fox

  63. OT 1:14Shot by Panarin, saved by Blackwood3v4
  64. OT 1:38Shot by Panarin, saved by Blackwood3v4
  65. OT 2:55Shot by Makar, saved by Shesterkin4v4
  66. OT 3:04Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Blackwood3v3
  67. OT 4:08Shot by O'Connor, saved by Shesterkin3v3
  68. OT 4:23Goal by Toews (MacKinnon, O'Connor)3v3+46 pts WP

    On ice: COL MacKinnon, Toews, O'Connor · NYR Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox

  69. OT 4:23Period end3v4
  70. OT 4:23Final4v4