Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 39 | 15 | 520 |
| FLA | 111 | 19 | 023 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:01FLAAnton LundellAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:52DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 8:21FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Mackie Samoskevich · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:44DETPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 15:41DETMarco KasperAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:38DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Marco Kasper, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.80 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:32DETErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min
- P1 7:12FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:00FLANate Schmidt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58FLAJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15DETAlbert Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:30FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:30DETAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:21DETLucas Raymond: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat9:54
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Veleno4:22
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper8:59
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren10:11
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holl – Gustafsson9:36
xG 0.22–0.32 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson16:03
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider14:10
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 11–25goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Luostarinen – Samoskevich9:55
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell8:15
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Rodrigues4:10
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk11:22
xG 0.21–0.43 (32%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBjornfot – Balinskis9:25
xG 1.16–0.15 (89%)attempts 25–2goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Forsling13:49
xG 0.83–0.42 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Mikkola12:52
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).