Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 117 | 05 | 129 |
| STL | 315 | 19 | 05 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55STLBrayden SchennAssists: Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:53STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 15:40STLJordan KyrouAssists: Dylan Holloway, Tyler Tucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 11:14CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Jakob Pelletier, Rory Kerins · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:39STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 6:23STLPhilip Broberg: Holding2 min
- P2 13:09CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:09STLOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:11CGYBrayden Pachal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:11CGYMatt Coronato: Holding2 min
- P3 17:49CGYBrayden Pachal: Holding2 min
- P3 17:49CGYBrayden Pachal: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:49STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato14:11
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Kerins11:55
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr3:53
xG 0.05–0.47 (9%)attempts 2–10goals 0–2
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:58
xG 0.35–0.96 (26%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl16:38
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
- Bean – Pachal13:39
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley15:53
xG 0.26–1.30 (17%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:50
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:42
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Faksa – Joseph – Toropchenko10:26
xG 0.44–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Bolduc10:24
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko15:44
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Suter – Tucker15:46
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg14:06
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).