Thu, Jan 16, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 09 | 24 | 324 |
| DAL | 17 | 015 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50DALJason RobertsonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:37MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 9:15MTLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:43MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:09MTLMichael Pezzetta: Interference2 min
- P2 6:35MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51DALMatěj Blümel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:20DALMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:09DALNils Lundkvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:20MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17MTLPatrik Laine: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:03
xG 1.19–0.93 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Armia – Anderson – Evans2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta3:48
xG 0.08–0.24 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook10:28
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj7:50
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson2:20
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson13:32
xG 0.71–1.01 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Stankoven9:53
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston9:36
xG 0.88–0.61 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hryckowian5:45
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Steel – Blümel – Bourque7:10
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley3:54
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Heiskanen2:41
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley5:44
xG 0.37–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).