Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 014 | 28 | 329 |
| COL | 114 | 313 | 29 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:07COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 10:31COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:56COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:30COLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 8:13COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 11:08DALJason RobertsonAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 11:47DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 13:13COLCale MakarAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:46DALColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:56COLParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:22DALColin Blackwell: Holding2 min
- P2 9:09DALLogan Stankoven: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:34COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Robertson – Johnston11:40
xG 0.99–0.68 (59%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hryckowian7:41
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Steel – Blümel – Bourque10:01
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Benn – Duchene – Stankoven10:22
xG 0.60–1.89 (24%)attempts 8–28goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lyubushkin10:06
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Dumba – Harley8:25
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley3:41
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Drouin – Mittelstadt10:49
xG 1.83–0.31 (85%)attempts 31–8goals 4–1
- Parssinen – Ivan – Innala6:16
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta10:14
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Colton12:51
xG 0.27–0.93 (22%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard10:57
xG 1.11–0.41 (73%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- de Haan – Middleton10:46
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard3:38
xG 0.34–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).