Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 214 | 512 | 734 |
| MTL | 313 | 010 | 012 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08MTLKirby DachAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:21MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:30MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Joel Armia, Alexandre Carrier · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 9:32TORBobby McMannUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 18:46TORNick RobertsonPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Pontus Holmberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 0:24TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Bobby McMann · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:31TOROliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Max Domi · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 7:58TORAuston MatthewsSHAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 14:45TORSteven LorentzAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.26 xG6–3
- P3 18:26TORDavid KampfENAssists: Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.59 xG7–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:53TORBobby McMann: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44TORAuston Matthews: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:58MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:47MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26MTLChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:53MTLDavid Savard: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:11TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min
- P3 17:46TORSteven Lorentz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Lorentz – Kampf5:33
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – McMann3:04
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Holmberg – Robertson5:00
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Domi – Robertson2:40
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Timmins6:07
xG 0.91–0.50 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – McCabe3:10
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- McCabe – Timmins3:23
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Pezzetta2:46
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook9:22
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:49
xG 0.98–0.73 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Armia – Anderson – Evans3:43
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle14:13
xG 1.67–0.39 (81%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj10:15
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson12:11
xG 0.64–1.05 (38%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).