Sun, Jan 19, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 02 | 110 | 18 | 220 |
| NJD | 016 | 17 | 03 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:16OTTZack OstapchukAssists: Michael Amadio, Matthew Highmore · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 14:34NJDTomas TatarAssists: Curtis Lazar, Luke Hughes · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 2:50OTTArtem ZubGWGAssists: Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:58OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:00NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:31NJDBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P3 10:00NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle3:17
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Greig – Stützle2:33
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Highmore – Norris – Batherson3:09
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:34
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:19
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:21
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lazar – Bastian9:09
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Dowling – Cotter – Mercer6:47
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes9:57
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier10:39
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic13:05
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hughes14:39
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Hughes2:53
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).