Tue, Jan 21, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 5, Nashville Predators 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 48 | 15 | 011 | 524 |
| NSH | 18 | 218 | 415 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Cody Ceci, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:42SJSLuke KuninAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 11:56SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Will Smith, Fabian Zetterlund · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 12:20NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Schenn, Zachary L'Heureux · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P1 19:31SJSJake WalmanAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 4:28SJSMikael GranlundPPAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.17 xG5–1
- P2 12:40NSHFedor SvechkovPPAssists: Colton Sissons, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P2 13:33NSHJustin BarronAssists: Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 0:28NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Steven Stamkos, Adam Wilsby · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 5:23NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.09 xG5–5
- P3 8:09NSHNick BlankenburgGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.06 xG5–6
- P3 18:38NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:18NSHVinnie Hinostroza: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:23NSHSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 2:07SJSJake Walman: Holding2 min
- P2 4:20NSHBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:24SJSWill Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:59NSHAdam Wilsby: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:51SJSWilliam Eklund: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kunin won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Eklund – Celebrini13:13
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Smith10:54
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Dellandrea5:39
xG 0.02–0.42 (4%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Kunin – Kovalenko – Graf9:37
xG 0.00–0.71 (0%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren14:41
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Rutta – Thrun12:16
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Walman13:36
xG 0.41–1.32 (24%)attempts 13–24goals 4–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – L'Heureux – Svechkov8:01
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg9:45
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith7:02
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza6:28
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby10:26
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Josi – Barron13:15
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 23–11goals 1–3
- Wilsby – Blankenburg2:34
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).