Tue, Jan 21, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 13 | 16 | 15 | 314 |
| EDM | 110 | 016 | 16 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Vasily Podkolzin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:01WSHTom WilsonAssists: Aliaksei Protas, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 8:14WSHMatt RoyAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:49WSHPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Logan Thompson · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 4:50EDMCorey PerryAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:39WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P2 19:30WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 1:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:15EDMTy Emberson: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 17:59WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Eller – Raddysh – Frank6:23
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime11:10
xG 0.36–0.68 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas11:01
xG 0.44–1.14 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael9:19
xG 0.13–1.13 (11%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun4:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:09
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin4:05
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin6:59
xG 1.26–0.26 (83%)attempts 16–3goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – Janmark8:59
xG 1.00–0.25 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Hyman6:47
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Kapanen – Philp2:55
xG 0.01–0.02 (29%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Emberson4:42
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson5:32
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher5:44
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).