Wed, Jan 22, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 25 | 27 | 519 |
| TOR | 015 | 09 | 15 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:40CBJAdam FantilliSHAssists: Ivan Provorov, Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 13:40CBJJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Luca Del Bel Belluz, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 15:21CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.29 xG3–0
- P3 5:56CBJLuca Del Bel BelluzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 9:22TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 12:02CBJAdam FantilliENAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:32CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:32TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:26CBJDmitri Voronkov: Holding2 min
- P1 6:26CBJElvis Merzlikins: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:26TORAuston Matthews: Illegal stick2 min
- P1 13:42CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10CBJSean Kuraly: Holding2 min
- P3 11:05TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:05CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli12:30
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Marchenko – Pyyhtia2:09
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz9:27
xG 0.82–0.77 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Pyyhtia – Del Bel Belluz2:03
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro16:27
xG 1.41–0.78 (64%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Johnson – Severson5:55
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Severson – Harris6:23
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies8:29
xG 0.93–0.29 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews3:24
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf4:58
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – McMann6:33
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – McCabe11:55
xG 0.80–0.55 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Timmins – Benoit10:47
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe3:04
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).