Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 017 | 06 | 134 |
| NYR | 215 | 18 | 314 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:00NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 10:24NYRAdam EdstromGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:44NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Will Borgen, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 5:15NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, K'Andre Miller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 16:53NYRAdam FoxENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
- P3 18:15NYRReilly SmithPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:47NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:17PHIBobby Brink: Interference2 min
- P2 12:35NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:27NYRArtemi Panarin: Interference2 min
- P3 18:04PHINoah Cates: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Richard – Abols6:07
xG 1.34–0.06 (96%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost9:20
xG 0.65–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster12:27
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Richard – Konecny – Abols2:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York14:40
xG 2.81–0.55 (84%)attempts 31–12goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – York2:11
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula13:53
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Edstrom – Rempe7:54
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:31
xG 0.70–0.66 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Cuylle9:53
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev8:39
xG 0.20–0.95 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider13:57
xG 1.06–0.91 (54%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Borgen – Miller15:45
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren16:19
xG 0.72–1.61 (31%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).