Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 23 | 06 | 422 |
| CAR | 09 | 524 | 210 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Luca Del Bel Belluz, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:48CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Adam Fantilli, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 2:48CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 7:11CAREric RobinsonAssists: Seth Jarvis, Frederik Andersen · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 7:58CARJackson BlakeAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 8:33CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 11:34CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 13:21CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Kent Johnson, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P2 14:43CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 11:13CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.15 xG4–6
- P3 18:08CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:13CBJMathieu Olivier: Interference2 min
- P2 2:09CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:23CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 2:52CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:15CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese2:05
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz11:09
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 13–18goals 2–2
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese9:25
xG 0.18–0.92 (16%)attempts 2–23goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:22
xG 0.34–1.37 (20%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Provorov – Christiansen12:20
xG 0.63–0.86 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Severson – Harris2:03
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis12:35
xG 1.31–0.61 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:02
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Drury – Jaaska7:12
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Blake11:26
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield16:22
xG 1.45–0.33 (81%)attempts 28–9goals 4–2
- Burns – Slavin15:52
xG 1.40–0.62 (69%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:53
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).