Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 214 | 110 | 17 | 431 |
| STL | 14 | 04 | 19 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19VGKMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 8:54VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 10:22STLJordan KyrouAssists: Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:30VGKPavel DorofeyevPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 16:34STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:33VGKTomas HertlENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:43STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52VGKKeegan Kolesar: Interference2 min
- P2 14:44VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel13:36
xG 0.88–0.21 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy11:20
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev10:34
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Laczynski – Holtz – Brisson7:32
xG 0.02–0.41 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin17:10
xG 1.03–0.62 (63%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:39
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:22
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Sundqvist – Toropchenko6:04
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Joseph7:59
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:12
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours8:44
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Broberg9:55
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Tucker3:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker10:02
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).