Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 111 | 09 | 132 |
| ANA | 212 | 010 | 312 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28ANAMason McTavishAssists: Robby Fabbri, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 19:01ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Drew Helleson, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 5:32PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 2:06ANAMason McTavishAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 6:52ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ryan Strome, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 18:00ANAAlex KillornENAssists: Jacob Trouba, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 4:28ANAJackson LaCombe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:39ANABrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:34PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:36ANAJohn Gibson: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 17:55PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Acciari – Glass3:14
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – O'Connor3:24
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Malkin – Bunting – Beauvillier2:12
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk12:58
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pickering2:33
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson2:00
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHarkins – Lundeström – Leason6:54
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier11:16
xG 0.62–0.56 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry12:15
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson9:04
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Mintyukov14:26
xG 0.93–0.58 (62%)attempts 9–22goals 3–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson13:04
xG 0.91–0.77 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe15:06
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).