Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 117 | 019 | 241 |
| EDM | 112 | 115 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:28BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jason Zucker, Jacob Bryson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:45EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Ty Emberson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 7:46BUFJiri KulichAssists: Owen Power, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:20EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 8:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:00EDMTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 5:41EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:47BUFPeyton Krebs: Holding2 min
- P3 4:14EDMKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod4:28
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- McLeod – Krebs – Quinn6:52
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson5:13
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Cozens10:11
xG 0.56–0.89 (39%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Byram2:07
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson10:15
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Byram15:42
xG 0.39–1.00 (28%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Kapanen – Philp2:18
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – Janmark9:46
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Perry – Henrique – Hyman5:19
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – Kapanen3:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson5:49
xG 0.52–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:58
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher7:23
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).