Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 09 | 012 | 028 |
| DET | 013 | 112 | 17 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:55DETMarco KasperGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 19:32DETMichael RasmussenENAssists: Albert Johansson · Backhand, 0.82 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 7:19DETMarco Kasper: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:28DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:28TBLJake Guentzel: Embellishment2 min
- P2 11:21TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:10DETSimon Edvinsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel3:20
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli6:28
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Chaffee5:41
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel5:43
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak3:04
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier5:10
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Crozier2:57
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper11:46
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Copp – DeBrincat10:08
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Soderblom7:12
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Compher – Veleno – Berggren9:03
xG 0.48–0.95 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson16:58
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:27
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Holl – Gustafsson8:35
xG 0.38–1.09 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).