Sat, Jan 25, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 7, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 313 | 411 | 08 | 732 |
| SJS | 210 | 09 | 04 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47FLANate SchmidtUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:50SJSCody CeciAssists: Jake Walman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 7:22SJSWill SmithAssists: Mario Ferraro, Fabian Zetterlund · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 14:27FLASam BennettAssists: A.J. Greer, Niko Mikkola · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- P1 17:08FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 3:01FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Tomas Nosek · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 5:35FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P2 13:07FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.25 xG6–2
- P2 16:25FLASam ReinhartAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.14 xG7–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:27SJSWill Smith: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:17SJSTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:10FLANiko Mikkola: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk12:49
xG 0.83–0.24 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell11:31
xG 0.54–0.35 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Nosek – Greer – Rodrigues11:52
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Bennett – Luostarinen – Samoskevich10:44
xG 0.62–0.96 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:29
xG 1.11–0.48 (70%)attempts 24–16goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Balinskis14:56
xG 0.87–0.74 (54%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola16:36
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Zetterlund – Smith12:00
xG 0.79–0.68 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Wennberg – Kunin – Kovalenko12:29
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini11:56
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Sabourin – Duehr9:23
xG 0.00–0.83 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman16:41
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 11–22goals 1–2
- Ferraro – Liljegren17:21
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Thrun13:42
xG 0.03–1.15 (3%)attempts 6–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).