Sun, Jan 26, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 112 | 17 | 222 |
| WPG | 19 | 29 | 29 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, David Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:17WPGMason AppletonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 15:08CGYMacKenzie WeegarPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:09WPGGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 3:07WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 4:27CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 7:08WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:53WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:21WPGMason Appleton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31CGYMartin Pospisil: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:52WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:52CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:09WPGRasmus Kupari: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:41CGYRasmus Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:41WPGMorgan Barron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kupari won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestPospisil – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko10:37
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:06
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Bishop – Lomberg – Rooney5:54
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier10:56
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal10:29
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hanley – Andersson15:26
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov12:54
xG 0.18–0.49 (26%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Gustafsson7:41
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Appleton – Kupari11:28
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:32
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:43
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk16:07
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Fleury – Stanley11:15
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:58
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).