Mon, Jan 27, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 210 | 07 | 09 | 226 |
| DET | 111 | 27 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50LAKKevin FialaAssists: Jordan Spence, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:05LAKQuinton ByfieldUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–0
- P1 17:40DETLucas RaymondAssists: Marco Kasper, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:03DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:53DETElmer SoderblomGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Albert Johansson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 10:05DETMarco KasperAssists: Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 19:53DETMarco KasperENAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:38DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:33LAKAlex Turcotte: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:13LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:14LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Moore – Byfield7:11
xG 1.45–0.23 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Danault – Fiala – Laferriere8:06
xG 0.97–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere4:12
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Lewis – Jeannot – Helenius7:01
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Spence16:21
xG 2.06–0.36 (85%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Anderson16:02
xG 0.84–0.75 (53%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
- Moverare – Clarke9:42
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Motte – Shine – Veleno7:59
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Berggren12:36
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Soderblom8:49
xG 0.37–0.70 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper12:58
xG 0.73–1.81 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Johansson – Edvinsson18:04
xG 1.46–1.42 (51%)attempts 22–29goals 2–0
- Holl – Gustafsson10:15
xG 0.00–0.78 (0%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider19:42
xG 0.45–1.58 (22%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).