Mon, Jan 27, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 212 | 211 | 17 | 530 |
| STL | 04 | 115 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52VANConor GarlandAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:53VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 8:26VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Kevin Lankinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 10:08STLDylan HollowayPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jake Neighbours · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 13:36VANPius SuterSHAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 4:22STLColton ParaykoAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:57VANTyler MyersENAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:57STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:27VANCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:00STLDylan Holloway: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18STLRobert Thomas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:02VANNils Hoglander: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:41VANConor Garland: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:45STLTyler Tucker: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Karlsson – Hoglander7:01
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Heinen – Boeser10:26
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Blueger – Sasson6:26
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Suter11:34
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Pettersson9:35
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Forbort – Hronek11:11
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes3:14
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Joseph – Toropchenko5:38
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:36
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:52
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Saad – Walker – Bolduc5:02
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Broberg7:02
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker5:51
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko7:24
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).