Tue, Jan 28, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 112 | 16 | 323 |
| CGY | 013 | 19 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51WSHPierre-Luc DuboisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:17CGYBlake ColemanPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Andrei Kuzmenko · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:12WSHDylan StromePPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–1
- P3 17:35WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Lars Eller, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 17:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:05WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45CGYBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:54CGYBlake Coleman: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 2:49CGYTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:06WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:43CGYAdam Klapka: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:33WSHConnor McMichael: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:33CGYRasmus Andersson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:33WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:38WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raddysh – Frank6:34
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime9:07
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas8:41
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome8:24
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun2:59
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun7:23
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin3:35
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato9:23
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier10:12
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bishop – Lomberg – Klapka5:45
xG 0.14–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pospisil – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko8:25
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Bean14:06
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Hanley – Andersson12:44
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Barrie – Pachal10:28
xG 0.18–0.31 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).