Tue, Jan 28, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 113 | 16 | 11 | 428 |
| VGK | 210 | 18 | 09 | 01 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 3:41DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 6:35VGKTomas HertlAssists: Nicolas Hague, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 3:57VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 5:04DALWyatt JohnstonSHAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 11:54DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 0:20DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:42DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:42DALIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:07VGKNicolas Roy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:56VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Robertson – Johnston9:05
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck2:19
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston4:13
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Benn – Duchene – Bourque12:26
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lyubushkin9:37
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley14:41
xG 1.12–0.47 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Dumba – Bichsel9:35
xG 0.13–0.88 (13%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev10:09
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Howden – Rondbjerg – Lavoie7:29
xG 0.34–0.22 (62%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel15:16
xG 0.81–0.93 (46%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy8:49
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:24
xG 0.63–0.23 (74%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin17:01
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- McNabb – Theodore17:00
xG 0.83–1.13 (42%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).