Thu, Jan 30, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 07 | 014 | 131 |
| CGY | 08 | 212 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54ANAFrank VatranoSHAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:15CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Martin Pospisil, Jake Bean · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:16CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Matt Coronato · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 16:10CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 17:37CGYMatt CoronatoENAssists: Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:32CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:20ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:33ANAJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:33CGYNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:25CGYBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:31ANAAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35CGYRyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35ANABrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANAJansen Harkins: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sharangovich won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Zegras – Carlsson10:23
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason9:46
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry10:01
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:09
xG 0.24–0.75 (25%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Mintyukov12:15
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Gudas – LaCombe15:11
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson13:54
xG 0.20–0.88 (19%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil7:21
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato8:08
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Pospisil – Sharangovich – Klapka3:20
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Bishop – Lomberg – Rooney3:09
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Bean16:10
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Hanley – Andersson13:16
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Barrie – Pachal14:34
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).