Thu, Jan 30, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 213 | 09 | 06 | 2 | 335 |
| EDM | 215 | 013 | 014 | 05 | 0 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:29EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Zach Hyman, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 9:59DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Elmer Soderblom · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 11:47DETDylan LarkinAssists: Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 3. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 4. DET Dylan Larkin scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:07DETVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:57DETJoseph Veleno: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:26DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:29EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:47DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P3 7:56EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:40EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper14:14
xG 1.43–0.78 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Copp – DeBrincat12:22
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Fischer – Shine – Veleno5:04
xG 0.02–0.44 (4%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Rasmussen – Berggren – Soderblom9:11
xG 0.30–1.16 (20%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider19:56
xG 1.60–1.17 (58%)attempts 29–18goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson7:27
xG 0.17–0.87 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson16:40
xG 0.25–1.06 (19%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Skinner – Hyman5:07
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – McDavid2:52
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – McDavid6:52
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin7:52
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard9:44
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson8:05
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard5:42
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).