Sat, Feb 1, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 0, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 04 | 04 | 016 |
| OTT | 114 | 221 | 317 | 652 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:01OTTJosh NorrisSHGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:38OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 8:45OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 0:38OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 1:37OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 2:52OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Slap, 0.14 xG0–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:48MINJakub Lauko: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:48OTTZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:48OTTZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:48MINYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:06MINLiam Ohgren: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:52MINJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:12MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P2 13:33MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:33MINRyan Hartman: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:33OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00MINRyan Hartman: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P3 2:20MINJake Middleton: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Ohgren6:56
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Rossi3:58
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Shore – Lauko – Khusnutdinov6:30
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:38
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Middleton – Faber11:06
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill9:11
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Chisholm11:49
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Pinto – Greig8:53
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle6:29
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Norris – Batherson7:01
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Ostapchuk7:58
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo12:37
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Chabot10:56
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub11:39
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).