Sat, Feb 1, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 117 | 15 | 11 | 336 |
| TBL | 012 | 110 | 19 | 00 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:39TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Erik Cernak, Gage Goncalves · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 18:16NYIAdam BoqvistAssists: Mathew Barzal, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 6:41NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:13TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 0:33NYITony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:30NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P2 11:46NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:29NYIMarc Gatcomb: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:36TBLZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:17NYIMarc Gatcomb: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:17TBLCam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17TBLCam Atkinson: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:17NYIMarc Gatcomb: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov10:25
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom9:24
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:53
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb5:15
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo2:34
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Boqvist4:20
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov16:47
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 21–20goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point9:57
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Goncalves – Geekie2:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Point3:53
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix2:21
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:06
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh13:33
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).