Sun, Feb 2, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
St. Louis Blues 2, Utah Hockey Club 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 115 | 07 | 17 | 229 |
| UTA | 06 | 09 | 110 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41STLAlexandre TexierAssists: Radek Faksa, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 3:27UTAMichael KesselringAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Stenlund · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 7:13STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:50UTAMichael Carcone: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:22STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:00STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P2 2:27STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:27UTALiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:21UTAMichael Carcone: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:22STLRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P3 10:37STLMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas12:57
xG 1.05–0.62 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway10:02
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Faksa – Texier – Toropchenko6:59
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc7:21
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko15:22
xG 1.35–0.69 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Suter – Tucker9:12
xG 0.40–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg14:50
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain8:02
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Stenlund6:52
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller12:13
xG 0.67–0.91 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Hayton – Maccelli – Doan6:57
xG 0.07–0.49 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – DeSimone5:12
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Kesselring2:40
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Marino4:56
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).