Mon, Feb 3, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 222 | 39 | 539 |
| NSH | 08 | 112 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:59NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 10:00OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Tim Stützle, David Perron · Bat, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:04OTTJake SandersonAssists: Matthew Highmore, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 0:47NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 6:17OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 14:06OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 17:09OTTRidly GreigENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.81 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:28NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P1 16:26OTTDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 19:58NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:34NSHZachary L'Heureux: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:34OTTZack Ostapchuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:34NSHZachary L'Heureux: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:47OTTTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:06NSHFedor Svechkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:57NSHZachary L'Heureux: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Svechkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Greig5:06
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Amadio – Stützle3:34
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Ostapchuk2:48
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Highmore – Batherson – Pinto3:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:14
xG 1.47–0.61 (71%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Kleven – Matinpalo11:29
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot15:17
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Marchessault4:27
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Novak – Svechkov2:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Hinostroza5:24
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith7:00
xG 0.10–0.45 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Josi9:12
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Josi – Wilsby5:26
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gravel4:04
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).