Tue, Feb 4, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 012 | 09 | 029 |
| WPG | 112 | 16 | 112 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:18WPGNino NiederreiterPPGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:13WPGNeal PionkPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 16:17WPGRasmus KupariAssists: Mason Appleton, David Gustafsson · Poke, 0.39 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:28WPGCole Perfetti: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:55CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:12CARTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:40WPGParker Ford: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:49CARTaylor Hall: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:00CARBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:04
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Aho – Blake13:42
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:06
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Robinson – Jarvis4:29
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Morrow3:03
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker8:08
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield9:00
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:12
xG 1.12–0.33 (77%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Gustafsson – Ford4:17
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:18
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Appleton – Kupari12:03
xG 0.46–1.09 (30%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk18:43
xG 1.43–0.35 (80%)attempts 19–25goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:37
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Miller – Stanley11:27
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).