Tue, Feb 4, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Detroit Red Wings 5, Seattle Kraken 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 113 | 114 | 04 | 1 | 540 |
| SEA | 14 | 19 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:28SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Kaapo Kakko · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:30DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 6:29SEAShane WrightAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Cale Fleury · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 12:07DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 3:21DETElmer SoderblomAssists: Joseph Veleno, Simon Edvinsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 10:10SEAShane WrightAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 17:04SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Brandon Tanev, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 2. SEA Shane Wright stopped
- 3. DET Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:54SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:03DETErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:17SEAShane Wright: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper13:49
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Copp – DeBrincat11:26
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Shine – Veleno – Berggren7:16
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Kane – Rasmussen – Soderblom12:15
xG 0.24–0.86 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson11:33
xG 0.65–0.14 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson17:47
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Chiarot – Seider17:51
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Wright11:01
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye5:50
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Tanev – Tolvanen3:54
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers15:39
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn20:33
xG 1.08–0.76 (59%)attempts 20–21goals 3–0
- Mahura – Fleury10:38
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Dunn2:47
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).