Tue, Feb 4, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 26 | 27 | 420 |
| SJS | 111 | 19 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund · Slap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:52MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:53MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Kirby Dach · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:51SJSCollin GrafAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 2:40MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 10:27SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 15:56MTLJoel ArmiaSHGWGAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:30MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:01SJSMacklin Celebrini: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:39SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15MTLAlex Newhook: Interference2 min
- P2 19:23SJSCarl Grundstrom: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 10:04MTLArber Xhekaj: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:19MTLJayden Struble: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Kunin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Dvorak – Beck8:13
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:45
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Laine7:32
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Anderson – Dach – Newhook8:35
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson13:25
xG 0.98–0.41 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Carrier – Struble12:57
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj10:50
xG 0.34–0.95 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Grundstrom – Duehr6:56
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Kunin – Graf10:22
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini11:37
xG 0.42–0.55 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Poturalski – Zetterlund – Smith9:38
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Thompson15:06
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin11:13
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Walman – Thrun12:00
xG 0.52–0.93 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).