Fri, Feb 7, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 07 | 119 | 335 |
| WPG | 19 | 312 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:27WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Dylan Samberg, Brad Lambert · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:07NYIMarc GatcombUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 4:23WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 14:50WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 18:18WPGGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 11:07NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Anders Lee, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.30 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:05NYIBo Horvat: Interference2 min
- P2 8:42NYITony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:02WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:09WPGColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:11WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom8:47
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lee – Duclair – Horvat11:56
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb7:35
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov12:29
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoqvist – Romanov2:10
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Pelech – Boqvist7:02
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Pelech – Perunovich12:45
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:19
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:13
xG 0.86–0.54 (62%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Iafallo – Gustafsson – Lambert5:22
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Appleton – Kupari8:35
xG 0.05–0.26 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:42
xG 0.90–0.54 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:16
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–20goals 1–2
- Miller – Stanley11:19
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).