Fri, Feb 7, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 5, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 312 | 17 | 112 | 531 |
| EDM | 211 | 210 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:39EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 11:46COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 12:22EDMCorey PerryAssists: Adam Henrique, Kasperi Kapanen · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 18:08COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 6:39COLCale MakarSHAssists: Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 7:48EDMCorey PerryPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.38 xG4–3
- P2 15:59EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.32 xG4–4
- P3 15:38COLMartin NecasGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:18EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:17EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:38COLParker Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59COLMartin Necas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:33COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:05EDMEvan Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:05COLJuuso Parssinen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:48EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21EDMEvan Bouchard: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – Drury8:14
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:14
xG 1.04–0.94 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Drouin – Mittelstadt – Parssinen5:47
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:48
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard2:54
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski8:35
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Girard3:08
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Kapanen2:33
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid4:18
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kapanen – Podkolzin2:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Draisaitl – Podkolzin4:02
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulak – Emberson5:09
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:06
xG 0.86–0.89 (49%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Nurse11:24
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).