Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Utah Hockey Club 3, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 18 | 111 | 120 | 339 |
| CAR | 116 | 412 | 210 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:35UTAJosh DoanPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Michael Carcone · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:25CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:35CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 10:19UTAClayton KellerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:14CARSebastian AhoSHGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
- P2 19:15CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jackson Blake · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 16:11UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Slap, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 17:16CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–6
- P3 18:34CARJack RoslovicAssists: Jackson Blake, Juha Jaaska · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:57CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:16UTAIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:51UTANick Bjugstad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:03CARBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:18CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:21CARTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Stenlund – McBain3:20
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan6:59
xG 0.47–0.37 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller12:01
xG 0.76–0.89 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- Carcone – Hayton – Guenther8:57
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Sergachev11:09
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Sergachev – DeSimone2:19
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Maatta – Marino3:04
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi12:13
xG 1.30–0.91 (59%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Jarvis – Blake10:56
xG 0.75–0.55 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Jaaska3:24
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov8:55
xG 0.53–0.63 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker10:24
xG 1.03–0.41 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield9:28
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin13:02
xG 0.82–0.85 (49%)attempts 11–20goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).