Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 1, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 09 | 09 | 127 |
| FLA | 016 | 420 | 112 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 6:18FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:36FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:26FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:58FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Evan Rodrigues · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 18:38FLAAnton LundellENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 5:35FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:20OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P1 19:48FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:36OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52OTTMatthew Highmore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:36OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle2:25
xG 0.15–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Greig6:39
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Amadio – Gaudette2:08
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Highmore – Stützle2:35
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Sanderson2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub10:34
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot9:31
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell7:42
xG 0.60–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich7:42
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:31
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Tkachuk10:46
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola12:04
xG 0.98–0.48 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis9:09
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:44
xG 0.79–1.06 (43%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).