Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 111 | 112 | 233 |
| PHI | 12 | 17 | 111 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Travis Konecny, Andrei Kuzmenko · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:19PITErik KarlssonAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:26PHIGarnet HathawayUnassisted · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:27PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Cam York, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 5:42PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Kevin Hayes, Danton Heinen · Backhand, 0.51 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:44PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:19PITBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:46PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Bunting – Glass9:45
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Rakell – Beauvillier12:31
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte9:27
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Bemstrom – Tomasino – Ponomarev8:13
xG 0.01–0.37 (4%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Desharnais14:00
xG 1.66–0.41 (80%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk16:08
xG 1.01–0.58 (63%)attempts 30–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph13:42
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko5:27
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Gaucher4:00
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
- Laughton – Foerster – Michkov3:03
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster6:29
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale2:40
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Andrae2:02
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Johnson – Andrae10:02
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).