Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 214 | 012 | 335 |
| MIN | 112 | 39 | 213 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19MINMarco RossiAssists: Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:32NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Maxim Tsyplakov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:28NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 7:17NYIAnders LeeAssists: Scott Perunovich · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 13:21MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Liam Ohgren, Brock Faber · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:59MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:50MINYakov TreninGWGAssists: Jake Middleton, Marat Khusnutdinov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 5:53MINMatt BoldyUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–5
- P3 15:46MINMarcus FolignoENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:01MINMarco Rossi: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:26NYIScott Perunovich: Holding2 min
- P2 11:38NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:59MINDeclan Chisholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Duclair – Horvat8:18
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom2:03
xG 0.06–0.01 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom9:11
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Duclair2:32
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Perunovich13:01
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- DeAngelo – Perunovich3:47
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Boqvist2:36
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Boldy – Rossi9:40
xG 1.57–0.49 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 3–1
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov4:53
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin2:04
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren3:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill10:51
xG 1.37–0.24 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm3:05
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber16:33
xG 0.73–0.73 (50%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).