Sat, Feb 22, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Anaheim Ducks 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 217 | 07 | 02 | 13 | 329 |
| BOS | 07 | 113 | 19 | 01 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:27ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 19:22ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Radko Gudas, Jackson LaCombe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:08BOSElias LindholmPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 18:49BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Mason Lohrei, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 3:39ANALeo CarlssonGWGAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:01ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:01BOSElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:25ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59ANAJohn Gibson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28ANABrett Leason: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:30ANARoss Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13BOSMason Lohrei: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJohnston – Lundeström – Leason5:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:59
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:22
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson12:12
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Helleson12:11
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe16:44
xG 0.57–0.75 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Trouba – Zellweger11:49
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:00
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm9:03
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Poitras6:21
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Tufte – Kastelic – Beecher4:14
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Lohrei7:13
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei7:27
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Carlo9:05
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).