Sat, Feb 22, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 18 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
| STL | 15 | 08 | 29 | 02 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 15:34STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:01WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 0:16STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Cam Fowler · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 17:10STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist · Slap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:32WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 2. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 3. STL Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 4. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 5. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:36STLRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P2 5:02WPGColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:21STLRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00STLMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:32WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:32WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:37
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:16
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Kupari – Gustafsson6:42
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:26
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley14:46
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Samberg – Pionk15:01
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Miller – Heinola9:24
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:12
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:12
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:04
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc7:24
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg14:55
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko12:15
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Tucker12:03
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 3–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).