Sun, Feb 23, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 16 | 28 | 00 | 428 |
| DET | 310 | 114 | 07 | 15 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11DETMarco KasperAssists: Lucas Raymond · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:29DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 5:06DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 8:24ANARyan StromeAssists: Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 2:14DETMichael RasmussenPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Erik Gustafsson · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 7:04ANACutter GauthierAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:44ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Leo Carlsson, Robby Fabbri · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:07ANACutter GauthierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 4:00DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Marco Kasper · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:21ANAIsac Lundeström: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:21ANABrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:24ANAFrank Vatrano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:24DETAlbert Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:19ANADrew Helleson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14DETAlbert Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANATroy Terry: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:53ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – McTavish – Gauthier13:28
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson10:01
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry12:03
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Johnston – Lundeström – Leason6:35
xG 0.01–0.19 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe16:00
xG 1.10–0.68 (62%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson14:33
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Trouba – Zellweger12:52
xG 0.28–0.92 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Veleno – Soderblom2:54
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat12:22
xG 0.85–0.65 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Veleno – Berggren6:46
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Rasmussen – Soderblom6:47
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson12:07
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider15:12
xG 0.82–0.76 (52%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson16:43
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).