Sun, Feb 23, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Dallas Stars 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 315 | 05 | 429 |
| NYI | 08 | 218 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10DALSam SteelAssists: Oskar Bäck, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:44NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Kyle MacLean, Marc Gatcomb · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:48DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Mavrik Bourque · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:55NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 15:53DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:28DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 9:17NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:15NYIAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:26NYICasey Cizikas: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 13:26DALMathew Dumba: Instigator2 min
- P2 13:26NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:26DALMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:26DALMathew Dumba: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 18:26DALMavrik Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:51DALOskar Bäck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Marchment10:50
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque9:17
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck8:57
xG 0.63–0.67 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:45
xG 0.01–0.53 (1%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lyubushkin14:49
xG 1.14–0.75 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 1–2
- Dumba – Bichsel7:14
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Harley17:17
xG 0.70–1.02 (41%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Holmstrom6:52
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom4:19
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Tsyplakov3:43
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Duclair – Horvat10:40
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Romanov15:30
xG 0.84–0.59 (59%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Pulock – Perunovich12:39
xG 0.63–0.86 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Pelech – DeAngelo3:13
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).