Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 110 | 08 | 124 |
| PHI | 215 | 314 | 19 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: Egor Zamula, Matvei Michkov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:19PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Bobby Brink, Jakob Pelletier · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 6:09PITPhilip TomasinoAssists: Michael Bunting, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 11:55PHITyson FoersterAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 18:55PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink, Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 19:05PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 6:06PHIOwen TippettAssists: Sean Couturier, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:48PITAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:37PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:05PHIGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P3 0:16PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 3:47PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Beauvillier – Glass7:03
xG 0.68–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:33
xG 1.10–0.80 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Malkin – Heinen – Beauvillier2:55
xG 0.21–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Hayes – Bunting – Tomasino8:55
xG 0.45–0.54 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph6:24
xG 0.57–0.07 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Shea4:22
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk7:37
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Michkov10:34
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Pelletier8:52
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko10:17
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:00
xG 0.45–1.22 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zamula14:33
xG 0.81–1.02 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Seeler – Drysdale13:20
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Sanheim – York17:32
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).