Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 13 | 211 | 18 | 422 |
| CBJ | 28 | 216 | 25 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Ivan Provorov, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:37CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Damon Severson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 9:37DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 1:11CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 8:46CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Kent Johnson, Boone Jenner · Slap, 0.01 xG1–4
- P2 9:38DALRoope HintzAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 13:57DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 2:37CBJJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 17:53DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–5
- P3 19:28CBJAdam FantilliENAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:56DALMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:40DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:54CBJDenton Mateychuk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:40CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Hintz – Robertson4:19
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Duchene – Blackwell – Steel3:18
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston4:21
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Stankoven4:20
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Lindell3:27
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ceci – Harley5:04
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:01
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli9:52
xG 0.66–0.06 (92%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Sillinger9:59
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese8:42
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – LaBate7:48
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Christiansen8:40
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro16:31
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk14:54
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).