Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 15 | 29 | 425 |
| NSH | 06 | 07 | 15 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23FLASam BennettPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 4:21FLAJustin SourdifGWGAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 4:30NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Colton Sissons, Cole Smith · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 9:02FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 15:34FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:58NSHMichael McCarron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 2:43FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:40NSHGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28NSHLuke Evangelista: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:00NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:00FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:22FLASam Bennett: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:31NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:33NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:15NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:15FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:19NSHFilip Forsberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:19FLAUvis Balinskis: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich8:56
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sourdif – Lundell8:38
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich6:55
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart12:36
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola15:04
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:21
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Balinskis12:10
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – McCarron – Smith4:59
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Novak – Bellows – Evangelista2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Novak3:09
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Svechkov2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Blankenburg4:04
xG 0.39–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg9:48
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Barron3:27
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).